TPLF spokesman spells out terms of negotiations and way out of a possible disintegration of Ethiopia.
Prisoners of War
Four scenarios are now possible.
In the first, the international community gets behind an African peace deal, enabled by Abiy taking immediate symbolic de-escalatory steps, including opening humanitarian access to Tigray, turning back on telecoms, banking and electricity services to the province, and speaking out publicly against Eritrean occupation.
This might, in a long shot, halt the war, but it is unlikely to save Abiy. It is difficult to negotiate from a position of weakness.
In the second scenario, suddenly bolstered by fresh international weaponry, the ENDF performs a miracle, and holds on, stopping the TDF and its allies from coming into Addis, the stalemate being followed up, in a positive outcome, by a peace process and a final settlement through a national dialogue.
More likely such a stalemate links to a third scenario, in which the Eritreans distract the TDF’s advance by re-invading Tigray, forcing the TDF’s retreat back up the road to defend their homeland to Ethiopia’s north. This TDF reaction is not certain, however. Rather Asmara’s further involvement might cause them to launch an all-out no holds barred offensive on Addis, perhaps expedited by closer collaboration with the Oromo Liberation Army.
Any further Eritrean intervention, whatever the short-term military consequences, will almost certainly lead to greater longer-term inter-communal violence and possibly even the dissolution of today’s modern version of the Ethiopian state.
If the Eritreans step in, what happens?
There is evidence to suggest that its president, Isaias Afwerki, has good reason to fear the reaction of his own generals to what will be an inevitably brutally bloody and possibly politically fatal struggle as much as the increasing international opprobrium that would surely result. This leads to a fourth, final scenario, that Addis falls, and probably sooner rather than later.
The question is, what then? The Tigrayans will, if they are as smart as they profess to be, not seek to return to the past, save taking back their businesses, but will set about creating a national dialogue that will enable power-sharing with legitimate Oromia and other leadership, and a fairer distribution of resources. Any failure to take this mature approach can only seed yet another conflict.
The ball is still in Abiy’s court, but only just.
Abiy Ahmed orders large scale attack on Tigray Regional Government.
