Uusmiir,
Bro, that is good news, indeed. Furthermore, now that Turkey is likely to “own” Somalia for good, the Arab regimes, from UAE, Egypt, to KSA, can see that SL is the strategical’s bet they can rely on to ensure the Horn of Africa and the red sea’s portion of the Somali peninsula, is not to fall to Turkish’s sphere of influence.
Moreover, the change of Administration in Washington also had impacted the view of UAE. You see, if you remember the situation was that the Trump’s Adminstration was gung-ho for Mr. Cheeseman in Villa Somalia. Which is why Mr. Yamomoto, their ambassador to Villa Somalia, essentially was no more than a “glorified babysitter” in the political and the diplomatic sense of that word, for Cheeseman and for his Villa Somalia’s political agenda. But now with Biden’s Administration in power in Washington, no such “indulgence” is likely to be forthcoming from the Yanks. Hence, the UAE can be bold enough in going after its strategical’s interests in the Horn-of-Africa (HoA) without worrying about whether they had crossed any “redline” of the US in regards how washington would like for the Somali issue to be dealt with. Given that the previous US’s government under Mr. Trump wasn’t too keen on for the UAE to upgrade it’s diplomatic outreach to SL lest that complicates the US’s attempt in State Building in Somalia. And most certainly, sending a diplomatic representative to SL by UAE would reduced the “air of legitimacy” of Somalia over SL, even if it was a fictitious one in the first place. And, of course, Taiwan case of sending her representative to SL is less of a break through in the larger sense given that Taiwan itself is not internationally recognize as independent nation, unlike UAE.
Secondly, The Ethiopian debacle had convinced the UAE, that, their old strategical’s bet on that country is no longer tenable, since, the regime there looks that it will be heading for a long period of turmoils. Previously, UAE thought so long as the Mr Abiy Ahmed was in their back pocket, then whoever runs Mogadishu, be it supplicant who was put in place by Qatar’s money or be it a hired stooge by western’s powers, they thought such man in Villa Somalia will always be “beholden” to Addis-Ababa. But now, they are not so confident that an open enemy of them will not be calling the shot in Mogadishu, like Mr Farmajo, who has a good chance to stick around long enough there. Hence, since Ethiopian is the weak link and Eritreans are looking likely to be send back into “dark and diplomatic jail house” by Biden’s Administration for what they done in Tigray, and the fact that Biden’s folks told the Emirates to cut its loses in Yemen for good, and the fact that the Emirates have already lost their foothold in Djibouti. Then all of that means that SL is the only “diplomatic game” in town left for them to shore-up their strategical’s depth in the red-sea and in the horn of Africa (HoA) in general.
Thirdly, admittedly, this may strike you as that of reading the tea-leaves too much of it, but I have a hunch that once this news gets to be accepted in Washington, or once there is no adverse reaction to it from Biden’s Administration, then that will also open the door for the likes of Egypt, KSA to follow the UAE. And if that were to happen, then the position of the Arab League (as a corporate body) will likely follow suit. Given that Egypt, KSA, and UAE (in that order) are the real powers who run the Arab League, in the true sense of that word.
Fourthly, The Biden’s Administration is going to appoint an envoy to the Horn-of-Africa (HoA) very soon, which means, the diplomatic activity of this region will increase manifold soon enough. Add that to the fact that we are likely to have smooth parliament and local election in May of this year (fingers crossed!). Also the fact is that Somalia and its federal’s member-states will still be debating the “modalities” of how to even agree with each other in terms of their selection process long after our elections. Hence, that in turn will be stark reminder (if any were needed) of how the two Somali territories of Somalia and Somaliland are conducting their respective internal politics. And how their political fortunes are far apart, as a result of it.
All in all, this is to me looks like a last holding hinge, or the last loose nail, coming off from its hitherto firm position in which it was lodged in. And by that I mean, if we play are democratic cards, cleverly, and we persue the Kenyan’s angle with the intention of “convincing” them to table our case at the UNSC, given they they are in that body now, and we work with them to finally do for us what India had done for Bangladesh against Pakistan, which was to recognize Bangladesh as an independent state of its own from Pakistan, which was claiming a sovereign power over them, even at the height of the tension between Pakistan and India. Then, as I see it, the western’s powers are currently not that disposed to object to our recognition, provided someone else of African and in the Arab world sort of a nation, like Kenya and UAE, was first off the block and was brave enough to recognize SL. And that would be the first time in thirty years such western’s view about SL had changed. Given that previously, the US Administration were always reluctant to entertain SL’s case in fear what that may do Somalia. But now, it seems that Biden’s Administration are coming around to see the futility of trying to put together Somalia from a top down position. And how impossible it is to force SL back into the failed union with Somalia.
Hence, our diplomatic opening is there for us to take the full measure of it. And UAE along with Kenya once they too open their embassy, and give a quasi-recognition to our case, will be the two African and Arabian forces we can ride to our legal recognition destiny. Provided we work to shore up internally, in our democratic credentials, along the way.
PS: Sorry about the long post, it couldn’t be helped. Given that the “subject-matter” in this breaking story has many alleyways and layered levels that are on top of each other, in which one has to walk the length of them, just to get a firm view of what this story could mean for us in SL.
The timing is very interesting indeed.
Oodweyne, great points as always and appreciate your insight into all things political. I think this comes down to one thing, its the economy (stupid) as some geezer once said. The geostrategic location of SL really was the catalyst for the developments of the last few years. It has proved to be too irresistible for some to ignore, so they are finally digging in. Close to a billion dollars worth of investment will have gone into SL by 2022. (I have time stamped the bit about the investments in the video below)
The diplomatic efforts are great but limited, if SL focuses on its economy, invests in its people , infra-structure, energy, mining, agriculture, tourism and so forth, it should be in a strong enough position to a) not be ignored/isolated and b) buy influence and ultimately the elusive R.
Suldaanka, regarding the timing, it always looks to me that the IC always use Somaliland as a stick to get Somalia to play ball. Every time there is a political log jam in Mogadishu, Somaliland gets funding (SDF2) or has a diplomatic breakthrough be it Taiwan, Kenya or the UAE.