Is the United States Getting Ready to Partition Somalia?
By Robert Connie | Feb. 8, 2026
Originally published at LiberationNews.org
On Dec. 26, 2025 Israel became the first country in the world to officially recognize Somaliland as an independent country. Somaliland is one of seven states that make up the Federal Republic of Somalia, which is situated in the Horn of Africa. Israel’s decision to unilaterally recognize Somaliland as a separate country threatens to upend the fragile unity of Somalia – which is larger than Texas – opening the door to further partition and its falling apart into mini-states. It also crosses one of Africa’s major red lines – that is, the preservation of state borders inherited at the time of independence.
On Jan. 6, following the decision, Israel sent its Foreign Minister on an illegal “state” visit to Somaliland where, standing next to Somaliland’s President Abdullahi, he affirmed statehood for Somaliland while mocking it for Palestinianians. Together, they announced plans to open embassies and exchange ambassadors. Most recently, Abdullahi appeared in Switzerland at the World Economic Forum – an invite-only event attended mainly by Western CEOs and officials – where he lobbied for more recognition and pitched investment opportunities, declaring Somaliland “ready for business.” At a closed-door dinner, Abdullahi spoke with Israeli president Herzog and Eric Trump, a senior executive of his family’s business empire.
Global rejection
Israel’s unlawful recognition shatters decades of international consensus on Somalia’s territorial integrity. Global backlash was swift. The African Union – a 55-member continental bloc – called Israel’s declaration “null, void, and without legal effect under international law,” demanding its “immediate revocation.” Intergovernmental bodies including the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (57 countries), The Arab League (22 countries), the East African Intergovernmental Authority on Development (8 countries), and the Gulf Cooperation Council (6 countries), have all condemned Israel’s move.
At the request of Somalia, the United Nations convened an emergency meeting of Security Council members. All 15 members denounced Israel minus its chief imperial sponsor – the United States – who staunchly defended what Somalia’s UN ambassador described as an Israeli “act of aggression.”
If another military power unilaterally recognized the independence of the state of Texas, for example – where the platform of the ruling Republican Party calls for a vote of succession – US federal authorities would no doubt think of that as an “act of aggression” against its territorial integrity. However, not when it comes to Somalia.
The United States, not just a bystander
That’s because in recent years, the United States has also been toying around with the idea of recognizing Somaliland’s independence from Somalia – in other words, ditching its standard “One Somalia” policy in favor of dismemberment. For Washington, the debate has nothing to do with the interests of the Somali people. Instead, their deliberations – whether to fragment Somalia or not – are about which option would best strengthen US positioning in the critical Horn of Africa region at a time when state actors are diversifying away from the US through participation in China’s 150-country Belt and Road Initiative.
China has been Africa’s largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, overtaking the United States in 2009, just as the US capitalist system was experiencing a financial meltdown more severe than any since the Great Depression. “We know that we can’t keep up with the Belt and Road Initiative,” stated the former Commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), General Michael Langley in 2024 when he testified before the House Armed Services Committee.
Unable to “keep up” with Africa and China’s growing commercial partnership, the US reaction has been to entrench itself militarily. In 2022, President Biden reversed a US troop withdrawal, rushing hundreds of permanent ground forces back into Somalia. In 2024, Trump signed a deal to build five new military bases across four Somali states plus the capitol playing the versatile “counterterrorism” card. US bombing of Somalia has never been higher since its drone war there began two decades ago. Last year, the United States bombed Somalia over 100 times, making it the bloodiest and most underreported US battlefield in 2025.
For Washington, the other “hedge” against its loosening grip is entertaining support for secessionist movements, particularly those so desperate for recognition that they will trade it for anything, including willingness to fully cooperate with the US empire. That’s where Somaliland comes in.
Background to Somali people’s colonial division
Somali-speaking people form one of the largest single ethnic groups in Africa. The European colonial partition of Africa at the end of the 19th century – the “Scramble for Africa” – carved up Somali-inhabited territory into five parts: British Somaliland to the north, Italian Somaliland to the south, French Somaliland (presently Djibouti), western Somaliland which was claimed by the unconquered Ethiopian Empire (presently the Somali Regional State in Ethiopia), and the Northern Frontier District which was incorporated into British Kenya (presently six administrative counties in north-eastern Kenya).
As part of the wave of post-World War II decolonization, two of those parts – British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland – gained independence in 1960 and voluntarily united to form the Somali Republic, a country with the same territorial boundaries we are familiar with today. Somalis residing in the other three parts – located in present day Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya – were left outside the borders granted by colonial powers, setting the stage for border disputes and conflict. Nearly all of Somali foreign policy since 1960 independence has centered on unifying Somalis into a single state.
In 1991, when the US Cold War-ally in Somalia – Siad Barre – was overthrown, the disappearance of central authority following years of civil war led people to turn to local authorities – which overlapped with pre-existing kinship and lineage networks – for safety and services. As regional administrations regrouped along these lines, they aspired to reconstruct a unified – but decentralized – Somalia. There was one exception. Guerilla commanders and political leaders based in Hargeisa – the coastal capital of former British Somaliland – wanted to secede, a move only supported by one part of the region’s population. Anti-secessionists, however, were coerced, and the independence of Somaliland from the rest of Somalia was unilaterally declared on May 18, 1991 within the boundaries of the former British Somaliland colony.
Thirty-five years later, the government in Hargeisa still does not exercise control over 45 percent of the territory it claims, areas that are under Somalia’s federal government and where people adhere to the idea of a united Somalia. Political leadership and the wider population in the rest of Somalia never accepted the secession either. For many Somalis, separating Somaliland from Somalia is seen as a return to colonial partition.
Africa’s red line
In 35 years, Somaliland has also not been recognized by any African Head of State or government. That is because the policy adopted by post-colonial African states in the early 60s – enshrined in the founding documents of the Organization of African Unity, and its successor organization the African Union – affirmed the principle of uti possidetis (Latin for “as you possess”) – or, in other words, leaving borders where they were when independence was gained. Among the reasons for this lasting policy preference is a fear that anything that opens the door to wholesale revision of colonially inherited borders – on a continent with 165 boundaries separating 55 countries – could unleash anarchy.
Operating within this legal framework, Somaliland and Somalia both argue that uti possidetis applies to them and not the other. Somaliland authorities claim that uti possidetis should refer to the borders of colonial-era British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland separately, vindicating their right to stand as a separate country. The Federal Republic of Somalia, on the other hand, claims that uti possidetis should refer to the borders of the two territories when they voluntarily united five days after they both gained independence, and that it was this united sovereign entity that joined the OAU in 1963 at its founding. Legal discussions aside, in substance, the struggle over safeguarding Somalia’s current territorial integrity or facilitating its break up into mini-states involves questions over what will best serve (or put at grave risk) the project of forging a stronger and more independent Horn of Africa.
Somaliland brought its case to the African Union in 2005. Since then, the AU has repeatedly refused to accept its attempts to secede from Somalia as a separate state.
Yearning for imperialist recognition
Unable to secure recognition inside of Africa, Somaliland secessionists have vigorously pursued international recognition as a way to override continental opposition. The most coveted prize is viewed as US recognition, whom it expects could coordinate pro-West allies to follow suit in exchange for giving the United States what it wants – an ultra-reliable foothold in the region. The desire for US recognition has led Somaliland authorities to align themselves with the geopolitical objectives of the United States. Thus, Somaliland presents itself as firmly opposed to China, going so far as to establish unofficial diplomatic relations with the island of Taiwan in 2020. Only one country in Africa has similarly discarded the “One China” policy and formalized relations with Taiwan over Beijing’s head – the repressive Kingdom of Eswatini. Taiwan has been part of China for more than 200 years, but the US government – searching for pressure points to apply against Beijing – keeps the threat of severing Taiwan from the rest of China alive.
In addition to Taiwan, Somaliland’s other main external partner is the United Arab Emirates, a collection of seven kingdoms run by six family dictatorships, and a key US ally. Each hereditary oil baron has sought to stay on the throne first and foremost by allying themselves with the US military super power and its number one regional proxy, apartheid Israel. Thus, the UAE is a close collaborator with Israel, normalizing relations in 2022 against the wishes of its citizens. The UAE views East Africa as its backyard and over the last decade has pursued a “pivot to the Horn” strategy, constructing military bases – including in Somaliland – and financing paramilitaries across the region in order to establish a footprint. From the perspective of US imperialism, the UAE’s “pivot to the Horn” activities are a potentially helpful way to offset the trend of declining US influence.
In relation to Israel, during its US-backed genocide in Gaza, Somaliland’s government not only showed a willingness to stay silent, but secretly established closer ties with Israel. Somalia, on the other hand, does not have – and has never had – formal diplomatic ties with Israel.
If all of this was designed to catch the attention of Washington’s elites, it worked. In 2022, Somaliland leaders met with members of Congress and the Biden administration. A few days later, lawmakers from both parties introduced legislation to improve relations. That same year, the US National Defense Authorization Act – annual legislation that authorizes funding and sets priorities for the US military – directed the Pentagon to deepen its engagement in Somaliland. Recognition of Somaliland was outlined in Project 2025, which has become the Trump administration’s blueprint. Last year, US lawmakers in the so-called “House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party” called on the State Department to open a formal diplomatic presence in Somaliland in order to “underscore our commitment to countering the PRC’s growing influence in one of the world’s most geopolitically significant regions,” and to begin distinguishing “Somaliland from the Federal Republic of Somalia.”
Last year, under Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi, a proposal began making the rounds in Washington – allow the United States to establish a military base and exploit mineral resources in exchange for diplomatic recognition. However, some inside Washington were sufficiently hesitant to slow things down. Somalia would see recognition correctly as dismembering their country, which might lead them to evict the US military. Imperialist thinkers weighed whether the US should give up its existing position in Somalia for a marginal gain in Somaliland. In the near term, one way for the US empire to have its cake and eat it too would be for one of its colonial henchmen to take the lead.
While advancing toward recognition, the United States, Israel, and the UAE have been weighing various risks – including lukewarm concern over triggering a continental backlash – and consequently operating just below the threshold of recognition. At the same time, however, they have been asking themselves – and likely each other – who should do it first?
Israel jumps the line
On Dec. 26, 2025, the world learned the answer to this question – Israel. Having become universally reviled internationally after perpetrating a genocide in Gaza, Israel was no longer as concerned about blowback to its reputation since it has achieved being widely hated already. What matters more to them than official opinion across Africa right now is attaining the means to continue waging its post-Oct.7 regional war of aggression. Palestinian and Lebanese resistance forces – while still intact – have suffered significant losses. Meanwhile, Iran and resistance-controlled areas in Yemen have not been defeated. By recognizing Somaliland’s independence right now, Israel’s main aim is to use Somaliland as a military base to attack Yemen, which sits right across the narrow Gulf of Aden. Two weeks after the Israel-Somaliland deal, an official from Hargeisa’s Foreign Ministry reversed previous denials and confirmed in an interview with Israeli media that talks about setting up an Israeli military base are underway.
Somaliland leaders are still denying accusations that – in addition to a base – they signed onto a US-Israeli mass relocation scheme, whereby Palestinians would be herded into third-party countries once they are forced out of Gaza. The US and Israel have reportedly approached multiple African countries with the same proposal, including Morocco, Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, and Libya.
All of this is likely to reinforce Israel’s general isolation on the continent, which is longstanding.
US seeking advantage, Somalia seeking unity
Part of the US imperialist establishment wants to capture the momentum from Israel’s recognition by following it in quick succession. “Israel recognized this small enclave as a country. America should, too” crowed a Washington Post op-ed written by a senior analyst at the Heritage Foundation – writer and publisher of the Trump regime’s Project 2025. The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed enthusiastically titled, “A Two-State Solution for Somalia.”
Somalia’s government has responded to the US-Israeli-UAE international recognition scheme by moving to consolidate its federal state system. In mid January, the President of Somalia, the Prime Minister, and a large delegation of ministers from the federal government gathered in the city of Las Anood – capital of North Eastern State (NES) – for the first time in 40 years. At an inauguration ceremony attended by thousands for newly elected local leaders, the President officially announced recognition of NES as a federal state of Somalia. This is significant because NES is a giant part of the territory claimed by Somaliland’s secessionists, now with official Israeli backing. In his keynote address at the ceremony, Somalia’s President symbolically declared that, “Las Anood is the capital of the unity of the country.” Somaliland’s President countered at a different event that, “Las Anood is part and parcel of Somaliland” and “we will strive to recover it from the enemy.” In other words, Israel’s meddling in the Horn may already be leading to renewal of war, one where imperialist interests will be more deeply involved than ever in shaping the outcome.
In addition to this, Somalia has terminated all agreements with the UAE – from port operations to military cooperation – citing “reliable reports and evidence” of its role in facilitating Israel’s recognition. The message is clear – the status of Somaliland is an issue to be resolved by Somalis within an African context, not by the conniving of external powers.
For Washington, where imperialist politicians are sitting around discussing the pros and cons of carving up Somalia – just like their colonial forebears of yesteryear – Israel’s illegal recognition serves as a trial balloon. With its genocidal watchdog taking up position in Somaliland, and with US forces already operating across the rest of Somalia, there are those in Washington that believe this new status quo gives them most of what they want. Others are ready to dismember Somalia the moment they feel US military and investment interests in Somaliland are locked in.