Israel’s Strategic Push into Somaliland
Establishing a military foothold:
Israel has reportedly been seeking to establish a military base in Somaliland, viewing it as a key location to monitor Houthi movements in Yemen and to secure its interests along the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. This interest aligns with Israel’s broader strategic goals following the Abraham Accords, where partnerships with the UAE and others have expanded its geopolitical reach into the Horn of Africa. Berbera port, upgraded by UAE’s DP World, is seen as a potential base for Israeli intelligence and naval presence.
Agritech and soft power diplomacy:
Beyond military objectives, Israel has also expressed interest in agricultural cooperation with Somaliland. This includes possible implementation of Israeli kibbutz-style farming and water technology, aiming to enhance food security and economic independence in the region, while increasing Israeli soft power influence.
The UAE as a Key Facilitator
Berbera port and military development:
Since 2017, the UAE has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Berbera, building both civilian port infrastructure and military facilities. Through its close ties with both Somaliland and Israel, the UAE has acted as an intermediary, helping both countries align their strategic goals. The UAE’s longstanding military and economic presence in Berbera has paved the way for Israeli interest and involvement.
Diplomatic brokering and recognition efforts:
The UAE has played a key role in lobbying for international recognition of Somaliland, with reports suggesting that recognition could be tied to security and intelligence deals that would benefit Israel. The triangular relationship between the US, UAE, and Israel has turned Somaliland into a central node in regional diplomacy.
Undermining Somalia’s Central Government
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Eroding federal cohesion:
Israeli and Emirati involvement in Somaliland has encouraged other federal member states to seek greater autonomy from Mogadishu. The enhanced status of Somaliland undermines Somalia’s federal structure and emboldens regions like Puntland and Jubaland to defy the central government. -
Proxy rivalry and polarization:
Somalia has found itself caught between rival regional blocs. While Israel, UAE, and Ethiopia support Somaliland and its autonomy, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt have aligned with Mogadishu. This has led to proxy political and economic conflicts, severely weakening national unity. -
Collapse of sovereignty and foreign military deals:
The 2024 Ethiopia–Somaliland agreement granting Ethiopia naval access has sparked outrage in Somalia, further eroding the perception of Mogadishu’s authority. With Israel rumored to back this move indirectly, the Somali central government’s claims to sovereignty have suffered a major blow.
Current Unrest and Security Collapse
Cut-off funding and diplomatic fallout:
Somalia’s break with the UAE in 2018 after interference in its internal affairs marked the beginning of Mogadishu’s isolation from key Gulf support. As the UAE focused more on Somaliland and Israeli alignment, Somalia experienced reduced financial aid and institutional support.
Militarization of federal member states:
With external actors training and arming forces in Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland, the federal military balance has shifted. The central government’s military capacity is undermined, and political control has weakened, leading to further fragmentation and inter-regional tension.
Al-Shabaab’s resurgence:
The militant group al-Shabaab has taken advantage of the chaos. As federal control diminishes and regional forces splinter, al-Shabaab has been able to regain control in some rural areas, destabilize cities, and attack key infrastructure. Political disunity, driven by external influence, has hampered coordinated responses.
Geopolitical Fallout and Strategic Risks
Somalia as a battleground for foreign influence:
With Israel, UAE, and Ethiopia supporting Somaliland, and Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt backing Mogadishu, Somalia has become a proxy conflict zone. Competing international interests have destabilized national reconciliation efforts and inflamed inter-clan and inter-regional rivalries.
Risk of formal secession:
The push for Somaliland’s recognition—especially with the possibility of Israeli and American backing—poses a serious threat to Somali unity. If successful, it could lead to other regions attempting similar paths, accelerating national disintegration.
State institutional collapse and vacuum:
As Mogadishu’s authority crumbles, institutions like the judiciary, police, and parliament have weakened. This opens the door for warlords, extremist groups, and foreign mercenaries to exploit power vacuums for their own agendas.
Conclusion
Israel’s growing strategic relationship with Somaliland—facilitated by the UAE—has contributed significantly to the weakening of Somalia’s central government. While Israel’s actions are part of broader geopolitical interests, the consequences for Somalia have been severe:
- Weakening federal unity and accelerating fragmentation.
- Undermining Mogadishu’s legitimacy and sovereignty.
- Deepening internal conflicts fueled by foreign alliances.
- Enabling the resurgence of extremist groups like al-Shabaab.
To restore stability, Somali leaders must resist foreign-led fragmentation, strengthen national institutions, and prioritize inclusive political processes. International actors must also recognize Somalia’s sovereignty and avoid policies that exacerbate division and conflict.