Their hissy fits won’t carry nearly as much weight as during HSM’s first term. There has been a tectonic political and probably economic shift south towards Jubaland and South West state which will consume Mogadishu’s focus for the foreseeable future.
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True. I am not too sure what left in their toolbox that they can use against Hassan Sheekh?
Hassan Sheekh has access to the International Community with his smooth talking, all friendly, no enemies approach. Even Kenya will be neutralised and hence Jubaland’s Ahmed Madoobe won’t be as demanding as during Farmajo’s term.
Abiy Ahmed is toothless as Ethiopia sleep walks into civil war. So they won’t be of any help that can pressure HSM either if they went to Addis Abeba.
All in all, they risk isolating themselves more than anything else.
They have much much bigger fish to fry on the home front. Economy is absolutely rock bottom as heard from their finance minister. Inflation is astronomical compared to the rest of Somalia.
Water resources are expected to decline drastically during the forthcoming dry season as water demand and use increases. In Garowe, there was abnormal drop in ground water level of seven meters between October 2021 and May 2022.
A lot of clan resentment to the point where their most loyal starting to abandon ship. The Ceeldaahir -Ceerigaabo road we have been hearing about since 2015 has been stuck at Cawsane approx. 30 km from Ceeldaahir since January.
The local elections that led to nowhere. A lot of soul searching ahead.