Risks Grow as Tigray Conflict Enters New Phase

“It is not hard to see this bad situation getting worse in a handful of different possible scenarios. From potential state collapse to humanitarian catastrophe to the very real risk of genocide, a host of reasons compel a more resolute international response. That response should provide antagonists confidence that a true ceasefire does not mean surrendering to certain slaughter or siege, political space to dial down incendiary rhetoric and get armed ethnic forces out of the driver’s seat, and certainty about the high costs of pressing real or perceived advantages to prolong the conflict.”

Meanwhile the rhetoric from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has taken a worrying turn. At the weekend he issued a statement describing the TPLF as a “cancer”. On Thursday, tens of thousands of supporters rallied in Addis Ababa to show support for the army - some holding banners quoting Mr Abiy’s words.

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