Farmaajo has read the Hawiye leadership and he thinks that he can play hardball with them. He could get away with re-election but will he be able to peacefully rule? That is the question.
The emasculation of Puntland. When being the mother of federalism comes back to bite you in the behind. From being one of the two main regions of Somalia and vital one at that, to agreeing to a process that made them one is five regions (soon to be 6 if you include Banadir) and thus irrelevant!
Suldaanka and Uusmiir,
Agree that puntland had just seen itself been comprehensively outplayed by Farmajo. And more to the point, she is been made as irritant nonentity, at least in so far as Mugadisho politics is concern.
And that really is something I never thought that the crafty pirates will not see it coming their way. It seems they have truly and monumentally underestimated the likes of Mr Cheeseman, specifically in terms of the sort of the breathtaking political moves he is capable of putting together.
So that is that.
Secondly, I agree with Suldaanka, particularly in the sense that Farmajo has realized that he can play off one Hawiye clan against the other, or at least, a one sub-clan against the other. And he can do that so long as he has all manner of free money from Qatar, along with a foreign troops to guard him in Villa Somalia. Particularly the kind of forces who in turn are not beholden to Hawiye clans, or who are not from them, in lineage wise.
Hence, he can manuever to win his version of re-selection to the presidency, if he can play this game. And provided the IC look the other way, or even allowed the African soldiers in which they pay their salaries to be turned into a form of a pretorian soldiers, who are out to guard the ill-gotten gain political power of the likes of Mr Farmajo in Villa Somalia.
However, to be honest in here, I am not sure the IC, in general, will be willing to be an alibi to such political chicanery. But we shall see.