Somaliland and Taiwan: Two territories with few friends but each other



Here is a bit of speculation on my part. Hence, with that, let me say a few things in here in regards to Taiwan and SL.

1 - SL is on a good PR diplomatic and democratic drive now. Especially since soon our hoped for parliamentary and local elections will be taking place. And that is undeniable good story to get across to the rest of the world.

At least if you compare it to the ever failing politically dysfunctional state of Somalia that is now at the mouth of another deadly civil-war. Particularly if Farmajo keep on insisting to get his way. Let alone thinking about Somalia ever getting any time soon to an accepted by all state or stable and democratic state.

So that is a really good political and shining picture to draw on. Which is what SL is in contrast and in comparison to Somalia.

2 - Now that China is going to be the central thrust of US Geostrategical competition across the world, including the bulk of Africa, then our strategical’s cards are genuinely enticing to the Americans. And our newly established good friend in Taiwan can also help us a lot in here, particular with Biden’s Administration. So that is also another good turn for us in SL.

3 - Somalia is now more troubles to US than they are worth in any value to the US. And so long as Mr. Cheeseman keep on showing his cards that he is ready to jump ship to China, the more Americans will have every reason to bet on us.

Because the whole reason the US wanted to help Somalia as opposed to us in SL was, first, it was to do with that war on terror. Second, to ensure Somalia do not fall on the Chinese’s sphere of influence. And third, to ensure the old oil contract from Siyad barre era can still be used by the same US companies.

However, as you know, the war of terror, is over. Or at least Biden’s Administration seems to be “telegraphing” that with the end of their involvement vin Afghanistan, means the war on terror with US boots on the ground in any muslim country is also over. And I suspect the US forces of Somalia that Trump’s Administration had ended will not be returning under Biden’s Administration to Somalia at all.

More to the point, if Mr Cheeseman keep on defying the US on his dictatorial agenda and make good on his agenda of getting a “protective shield” from the likes of China (or even the Russian) at the UNSC, then that effectively will mean the jig is up for US’s agenda of keeping Somalia, away, at least in Geostrategical sense, from Chinese’s sphere of influence. And that will redound on SL, of course.

Admittedly, all of these are pure speculation on my part. But it’s nevertheless an educated speculation based on reading the diplomatic tea leaves so far.

What do you think?