80% of global trade by volume moves by sea, much of it through roughly a dozen narrow passages. Africa sits alongside several of the most important. When one is disrupted, detours can add thousands of kilometers, weeks of travel and millions of dollars in costs.
By the numbers:
- 46%: Extra sailing distance to avoid the Suez Canal.
- 44%: Extra distance to avoid Bab al-Mandab.
- 85%: Extra distance to avoid the Strait of Gibraltar.
The bigger vulnerability may be commodities. About 95% of global mining trade and 89% of energy trade moves by sea. Fertilizer, grain and industrial inputs are also heavily exposed. A disruption thousands of kilometers away can still show up in African fuel prices, food costs, manufacturing inputs and freight rates. Geography is back. For Africa, the same chokepoints that create vulnerability could also make the continent increasingly important to global trade.