Uusmiir And Suldaanka,
Guys, hope both of you are fine and dandy. I have been dealing with the passing of my late father recently. And I didnât have much mind to pay attention to the usual politics of the Horn of Africa or Somalis in particular. However here is my two pence worth of it (as it were).
1 - I have hope and a fear. And itâs this. The hope is that finally the international community (IC) especially the westernâs part, will see through how throughout the time they were babysitting Somalia, the sharks and the political wolves of Somalia, who passed themselves off as elites and leaders there, especially Cheeseman in particularly were gaming them and were as usual fleecing them as the westernâs powers. And in that sense, my hope is that finally that the IC will see that what the leaders or alleged leaders in Somaliaâs were telling them was nothing but a way to have the IC to shore them up in security sense. Whilst on the other hand the leaders like Cheeseman proceeded to implement their original plan of power grab in which he had all along.
And my hope is that now that the IC had woke up to his âpolitical duplicityâ they will come hard on him. And they will do that to the point that they will sanction him and those who supported him, as well. They will also take their westernâs football of the ârecognition of his governmentâ away from him. And they will act in a decisive manner against him before things gets worse for Somaliaâs failing experiment of state building.
That is my hope.
Now to my fear part.
2 - The fear part is that the US had been âspookedâ by the Chinese and Russians aggressive moves in Africa. And how these two global superpowers had threatened a UNSC veto on Somalia within this year. And that veto (from both of them or even from one of them) if it comes will really complicates the US and westernâs agenda of keeping Somalia under the âUNSCâs guardianshipâ till the state-building is complete. And if it comes to the idea of the FGS of Somalia using the protection of the Chinese and Russia veto at the UNSC, which could be the case if the west pushes too much of Cheeseman, then that means Somalia could well be in another country in Africa that had fallen to the Chinese and to the Russia sphere of influence in Africa.
And that in effect will end the US and westernâs agenda of securing the oils prospect of Somalia particularly in the offshore sector. And it will also mean the Somaliaâs long indian ocean sea line will be another prime Geostrategical areas in Africa that had fallen to the Chinese. Particularly if Cheeseman in order to save his political skin in the international stage and in the estimation of the local politics of Somalia, jump ship decisively to Chineseâs side in this new cold war between the west and east in the form of the Chineseâs side.
Hence, the upshot of that way of reading things may well mean that the West had itâs diplomatic cards being nullified. Or their political bluff has being called by a certain Cheeseman of all people. It will be amazing feat if that turn out to be the case in here.
Which means if I am right (and I hope to God that I am wrong in my analysis) that the west is acting through with what could amount to nothing less than a âdouble talkâ sort of self-serving act. And by that I mean they will go with the motion of denouncing him and making all sort of empty talk about Mr. Cheeseman latest power grab. But at heart of it they will accept it in deeds. Provided the local security of the place and in Mogadishu in particular do not gets to be blown off in this standoff.
And given that the local opposition in Mogadishu are not an âimpressive bunchâ who have a military muscle to take him on in Villa Somalia, then I fear the west will simply keep on making noises-off about how they are against what he did from Villa Somalia. But in actual policies they will quietly work with him in the hope he will stay put and will stay with them on their westernâs diplomatic column. And not join the likes of China or Russia and then handover Somalia indian ocean sea lines (which is very important to the US Geostrategical Indo-pacific posture in this new cold war 2.0) to the likes of China.
This is my deep fear, guys. Letâs hope I am wrong. But as both of you know the US just got a cut-and-run away from Afghanistan, even when they already know that the Taliban will be taking over a week after the day their last soldier leave Kabul. Hence, such a retreating power is not one which can afford to lose ground to China in Africa. Given that the the bulk of Africa is now effectively a Chineseâs owned territorial landscape.
And add that also the fact that US is also gave up any pretense of forcing Mr. Abiy Ahmed to treat the Tigray issue with decent hand after Mr. Abiy Ahmed told Senator Chris Coons, who Mr. Biden send him there, that if Americans push Ethiopia too far he will then side with China.
And as both of you know, Ethiopia is one of the last big African states that is yet to completely fall under Chineseâs sphere of influence. Like South Africa and Nigeria, who are African states where Chineseâs diplomatic and political say-so is far more decisively influential than anything the west says. Given that economically speaking, both of these two big Africans states are tied at the hip with China much more than they are with west in general or with the Americans in particular.
Sorry about rambling on a bit. But, that is how I see things. Namely a hope that the west can still help the situation in Somalia. And a fear that the west will side with him, Cheeseman, in acts and in deeds of diplomatic kind. Although, they may still denounce him through their media organs. Or even at twitter, as Mr. Anthony Blinken and the USâs state department have been doing in the last few days.
What you think, guys?
As for SL, the âfear partâ, or the analysis that follows from that part if such an outcome holds for Somalia will be deadly to us, as you both can see easily through, or work through it. However the âhope partâ, or the analysis that follows the hopeful part that I had sketched out in here is good outcome for SL. Hence all the more reason I deeply hope that part of my analysis that is the âhope partâ is what will hold or at least will pan out for Somalia.
will not support term extensions. Emphasised the importance of an urgent return to a consensus-based electoral model.